Growth Model Study Using a Comparison of Gompertz, Logistic, and Weibull Models

  • Indah Suciati Institut Teknologi Sumatera, Indonesia
  • Vina Nurmadani Institut Teknologi Sumatera, Indonesia
  • Yoga Aji Sukma Institut Teknologi Sumatera, Indonesia
  • Linda Rassiyanti Institut Teknologi Sumatera, Indonesia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24127/sciencestatistics.v3i2.9423
Keywords: Gompertz Model, Growth Model, Logistic Model, Weibull Model

Abstract

Coronavirus Disease or COVID-19 has been a concern for the world, including Indonesia. The very rapid transmission of COVID-19 has had a wide impact on all communities around the world, especially Indonesia. To see the transmission of COVID-19 cases, which continues to increase rapidly, we can use a growth model. The growth model is a non-linear regression model that is used to describe growth behavior. These models can be exponential, sigmoidal, or S-shaped curves. The purpose of this study was to determine the growth curve model of positive COVID-19 cases in Indonesia using the Gompertz, Logistic, and Weibull models. After that, the model evaluation will be carried out using the coefficient of determination as a parameter, so that the best model will be obtained that can predict more accurately the growth of positive COVID-19 cases in Indonesia. The best model that can predict the growth of positive COVID-19 cases in Indonesia is the Gompertz model, with a coefficient of determination is 0.99064.

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Published
2025-08-09
How to Cite
Suciati, I., Vina Nurmadani, Yoga Aji Sukma, & Linda Rassiyanti. (2025). Growth Model Study Using a Comparison of Gompertz, Logistic, and Weibull Models. Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application, 3(2), 63-69. https://doi.org/10.24127/sciencestatistics.v3i2.9423
Issue
Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): JULY
Section
Articles

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