Kurva Pertumbuhan Nonlinier (Gompertz, Logistic, dan Weibull)
Abstract
Penyebaran COVID-19 sangat cepat bahkan diperkirakan tumbuh secara eksponensial, dikarenakan migrasi manusia antar daerah, negara, bahkan benua yang sangat massif. Oleh karena itu kurva pertumbuhan penderita COVID-19 yang tumbuh dari waktu ke waktu dapat di dekati dengan fungsi eksponensial selama beberapa peubah prediktor diketahui. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah memodelkan dan membandingkan kurva pertumbuhan dengan metode non-linear. Metode yang digunakan adalah metode non-linear dengan model gompertz, logistics, Weibull. Hasil yang diperoleh model gompertz memiliki nilai R-Sqaure yang lebih tinggi bandingkan dengan model logistic dan Weibull. Sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa model gompertz menjadi model non-linear yang terbaik dalam menginterpretasikan kurva pertumbuhan Covid-19.
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